Events to Look Out for Next Week

A light schedule for the last week of 2021. In the US there is the advanced indicators report looking at the trade deficit & wholesale inventories, pending home sales and the weekly unemployment claims. Inflation data from the BOJ, unemployment numbers and retail sales data from Japan and Chinese PMI data to close out the week and year.

Monday – 27 December 2021

BOJ Summary of Opinions & Retail Sales (JPY, GMT 00:00) – The BOJ’s projection for inflation and economic growth following the MP statement. No real surprises expected as stimulus and support continues to be all but guaranteed from the BOJ. Will inflation expectations be raised? Retails Sales are expected to break over 1% from 0.9% last time.
NZD, AUD, GBP, EZ countries & CAD all closed 

Tuesday – 28 December 2021

Unemployment Rate (JPY, GMT 00:30) – The Japanese Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.7%.
Richmond Manufacturing Index (USD, GMT 14:00) –  An important and often volatile measure of US manufacturing is expected to continue trending higher from the negative September reading at -3 and close out the year over 15 for December but below the high in July at 27.

Wednesday – 29 December 2021

Goods Trade Balance (USD, GMT 13:30) – The report is expected  to reveal a November widening in the goods trade deficit after a big October drop from a September all-time high. The report should reveal an export pull-back after the enormous October gain.
Wholesale Inventories (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for a big November wholesale inventory gain alongside a flat retail inventory.
Pending Home Sales (USD, GMT 15:00) – Likely to slip from the large surprise (+7.5% vs 0.8%) jump in November, following the negative -2.3% return in October.

Thursday – 30 December 2021

Weekly Unemployment Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) – Initial jobless claims are expected to tick down to 200k from a lean 205k over the two weeks ending with the BLS survey week of December 18, versus a 52-year low of 188k in the week of December 4. We’ve seen a dramatic tightening in claims since some stalling in the downtrend in September. Claims are on track for a 200k December average.
Chicago PMIs  (USD, GMT 14:45) – This important monthly measure for the Chicago area been trending lower and fallen in each month since a high in May at 75.2, to a new low in November at 61.8, will December produce a turnaround? Expectations are for a seasonal lift to 65.00.

Friday – 31 December 2021

Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI  (CNY, GMT 01:00) – Chinese manufacturing just recovered the key 50.0 pivot point last month at 50.1, having posted contraction in July – October, can the December reading move over 52.0? As for non-manufacturing the data is slightly better but remains subdued, the 2021 low in August of 47.5 has recovered to 52.3 for November, December is expected to move over 53.5.
Japan & Germany Closed 

Happy Holidays from everyone at HF Markets. We hope your holidays will be filled with joy and laughter through the New Year.

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Stuart Cowell 

Head Market Analyst

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