Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. Markets are expected to continue pricing in the prospect of accelerated tightening after the hot US inflation print and hawkish comments from central bankers. Central banks will remain in the spotlight as the conflicting messages are not helping at the moment and without clearer guidance volatility is likely to remain high in the run up. The week ahead is expected to be a massive one from a data perspective with UK and Australian employment, Retail Sales from the globe and the UK, Chinese and Canadian Inflation being the highlights.
Monday – 14 February 2022
Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. The preliminary Q4 GDP for Japan is expected to grow at 1.4% q/q from -0.9% q/q, with headline at 5.8% y/y from -3.6% y/y.
Tuesday – 15 February 2022
RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The minutes could spark some light on the RBA’s next actions. Note that this week, RBA’s Lowe pushed back against speculation that the RBA will follow the Fed any time soon.
Employment change & ILO rate (GBP, GMT 07:00) – The UK ILO unemployment rate should have steadied at 4.1%. In December earnings growth slowed, but the number of payrolled employees jumped a further 184K in December. November was revised lower, but the data still suggests that the latest virus wave hasn’t derailed the improving trend, which justifies the BoE’s decision to hike rates in December and will leave the arguments for further moves in coming months intact.
ZEW Economic Sentiment & Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 10:00) – ZEW Economic sentiment is likely to show a sharp decline in February at 32 from 51.7 in January. Eurozone’s GDP is expected unchanged at 0.3% q/q an d 4.6% y/y.
Wednesday – 16 February 2022
Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – Chinese inflation for January is seen lower at 0.5% m/m while headline are expected at 1.2% y/y from 1.5% y/y.
PPI and CPI (GBP, GMT 07:00) – Inflation from producer and consumer spending both expected to show a rise for January, with PPI to growth at 0.7% m/m from -0.2% m/m. With inflation already running above target and wages set to go up, and as January CPI is expected to contract at -0.2% m/m from 0.5% m/m, but it is unlikely to change the picture for the BoE tightening. UK CPI inflation hit 5.4% y/y in December, the highest since March 1992.
Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada’s CPI rose to a 4.8% (y/y, nsa) pace in December from the 4.7% growth rate in November. The December pace is the fastest in 30-years and has, not surprisingly, prompted talk that the BoC may hike rates next week. Core CPI for January is anticipated to eased to 3.5% y/y from 4.0% y/y.
US Retail Sales (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for January gains of 1.2% for the headline and 0.4% for the ex-auto measure, after December decreases of -1.9% and -2.3%, as distortions from the misaligned holiday seasonal factors are reversed. We expect a continued unwind of the lift from last year’s stimulus, and restraint from the end of child tax credits after the earlier loss of extended jobless benefits that capped Q4 disposable income growth.
FED Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 19:00)
Thursday – 17 February 2022
Employment Change (AUD, GMT 00:30) –The Australian employment changed is expected to show a decline to -15K employed people for January. The January unemployment rate is expected to steady at 4.2% m/m.
Housing Starts and Building Permits (USD, GMT 13:30) – Housing starts are expected to edge up to a 1.705 mln pace in January from rates of 1.702 mln in December. Permits are expected to sit at 1.830 mln, versus 1.873 mln in December and a 15-year high of 1.883 mln in January of 2021. Pending home sales fell -3.8% in December after a -2.3% November dip.
Friday – 18 February 2022
Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 07:00) – The Retail Sales are forecasted to grow by 0.6% m/m for January from -3.7% m/m with the core at -0.5% from -3.6% m/m last month.
Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The Retail Sales are seen at a 1.2% December rise with the core at 1.3% m/m from 1.1% m/m.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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