Events to Look Out for Next Week

The Banks so far did the expected and hiked Rates while stick on the scenario that further modest tightening may be warranted in coming months. Clearly the global policy paths looks less certain than it did ahead of the Ukraine war. Even thought there wont be any central banks meetings next week, Fedspeak will be hot and heavy next week. Officials are likely to keep the outlook confused considering the array of dots seen in the SEP revisions. The dots were all over the ballpark and that’s what we expect from Fedspeak. Data calendar meanwhile, includes UK Inflation, PMIs out of US, UK, EU and Germany and US Durables.

Monday – 21 March 2022

PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:15) –  On 15th of March, China’s PBOC injected liquidity but held rates steady. However, the PBOC expected to lower rates further to reach growth targets amid an uncertain global outlook against the background of rising commodity prices, although with Russian energy shunned in many places, China could emerge as a beneficiary of the war in Ukraine.
Producer Price Index (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German PPI expected to increased 1.7% and 26.1% on the headline and core in February after respective jumps of 2.2% and 25.0% in January.

Tuesday – 22 March 2022

RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 01:00) 

Wednesday – 23 March 2022

Consumer Price Index and Core (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK CPI inflation nudged up to a 30 year high of 5.5% y/y at the start of the year, from 5.4% in December. For February now expected to present upside risks again, at 6.0% y/y and core at 4.5%.
UK Annual Budget Release (GBP, GMT 12:30)
New Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – Expectations are for a 1.1% February climb to a pace of 810k, after a January dip to 801k from a December rise to a 9-month high of 839k. Rapid growth is anticipated in all the housing sector metrics in 2022, though with a likely repeat of last year’s spring lull as seasonal pressures intensify through Q2.
Crude Oil Inventories (GMT 14:30)

Thursday – 24 March 2022

Interest Rate Decision and Statement (CHF, GMT 08:30)–  The SNB is expected to keep rates unchanged but to reiterate its pledge to intervene if necessary to keep the franc down, as the currency has appreciated along with other safe havens like the Dollar and Yen during this turbulent period. The SNB recently revised up its forecasts for inflation for 2022, while downgrading its growth projection for the year.
Markit PMIs (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:00) – The Eurozone’s & Germany’s Markit  Composite March PMIs are expected to have declined, given a fall in both Services and Manufacturing sectors, leaving the composite at 54 from 55.5 for the Eurozone.
Markit PMIs (GBP, GMT 09:30) – March Markit Services PMIs shuold rise to 60.7 from 60.5 while Manufacturing PMIs are expected lower at 57.7 from  58.0.
Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -1.0% in February with a -4.5% transportation orders drop, after a 1.6% headline increase in January that included a 3.4% transportation orders rise.
Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The preliminary Manufacturing PMI for March is expected to slowdown to 55 from 57.3 while Services PMI is expected to fall to 56 from 56.5.

Friday – 25 March 2022

Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 07:00) – Retail Sales for February are expected to grow by 0.8% m/m  and headline to 8.0% y/y.
IFO Business Climate, Assessment & Expectations (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German IFO business Climate is forecasted to decline to 94 in March from 98.9.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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