The most equity markets are firmer, heading into the weekend with the US on holiday Monday. The markets seem to have fully priced in the likelihood of central bank rate hikes, though with easing of concerns over a very heavy hand by the Fed. Risk appetite remains fickle as markets remain concerned about the fallout from the Ukraine war, China lockdowns and of course aggressive central bank hikes that are feared to hurt the recovery. The week ahead is expected to be another massive one, as consumer data, Swiss and Canadian GDP, BOC Rate Statement and US NFP will dominate the market.
Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.
Monday – 30 May 2022
German HICP (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The hot topic for the Eurozone’s biggest & most important economy. Data is expected with y/y at 8.2% from 7.8%.
Tuesday – 31 May 2022
Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00) – The NBS Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline below the neutral level at 49.6 in May, confirming the Chinese contraction once again.
Gross Domestic Product (CHF, GMT 07:00) – The consensus for Swiss GDP results for Q1 is for growth of 0.7% q/q from 0.4% q/q and headline at 4.6% y/y from 3.7% y/y.
CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – Consumer confidence is expected to fall to a 14-month low of 104.0 from 107.3 in April, versus a 12-month low of 105.7 in February. We expect the present situation index to slip to 147.4 from 152.6 in April, versus a 10-month low of 143.0 in February. The expectations index is expected to dip to a new 8-year low of 75.0 after a small rebound to 77.2 in April, versus a current 8-year low of 76.6 in March.
Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The consensus for Canadian GDP results for Q1 is for growth of 5.7% q/q from 6.7% q/q.
Wednesday – 01 June 2022
OPEC-JMMC meeting attended by representatives from the 13 OPEC members and 11 other oil-rich nations.
Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The consensus for Australian GDP results for Q1 is for growth of 0.6% q/q from 3.4% q/q and healine at 1.6% y/y from 4.2% y/y.
Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 06:00) – Retail Sales for Germany are expected to increase to 0.3% in April from -0.1%.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to rise to 56.0 from a 2-year low of 55.4 in April, versus an 18-year high of 63.7 in March ’21, an 11-year low of 41.6 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 30.3 in June of 1980.
BOC Rate Statement & Cash Rate (CAD, GMT 14:00) – The BOC is expected to possibly move interest rates by 50 bp given that inflation hit 6.8%, the highest rate since January 1991, while the labour market has more than fully recovered from pandemic.
Jolts (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Job openings changed little at 11.0 million on the last business day of April, from 11.55 million last month.
Thursday – 02 June 2022
OPEC-JMMC meeting attended by representatives from the 13 OPEC members and 11 other oil-nations.
Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 01:30) – April’s Trade Balance for exports and imports are likely to show a rise at 9.5 bln.
ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The key private payrolls number is expected to grow by just 280k (a nearly 33k increase from last month’s 247 k reading).
Friday – 03 June 2022
Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 360k May nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 428k in both April and March, and 714k in February. Payroll growth should slow gradually through 2022 with reduced growth in the economy. We assume a 45k factory jobs rise in May, after a 55k April increase. We expect the jobless rate to hold steady from 3.6% in March and April. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.3% after the 0.4% figure in April, while the workweek holds steady from 34.6 in March. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.4%, from 0.3% in March, while the y/y wage gain should dip to 5.4% from 5.5%. In the last expansion, we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains, in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic-boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020, and the ensuing strength in wage gains has allowed continued robust y/y increases into 2022.
ISM Services PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM Service PMI is expected to rise to 58.0 from 57.1 in April, versus an all-time high of 68.4 last November, an 11-year low of 41.8 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 37.8 in November 2008. We’ve seen a broad six-month pull-back in most of the producer sentiment measures from remarkably firm November levels to readings that are still historically elevated. We saw a modest March-April updraft in sentiment from a recent February trough, but overall sentiment seems to be dropping back to February levels in May. Producers have benefited from higher prices despite rising input costs, and the need to rebuild inventories in 2022 after the stimulus-induced 2021 sales surge, but is being adversely impacted by rising rates and mounting recession fears.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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