Events to Look Out for Next Week

A very dismal week is now over, with a pretty gloomy political and economical outlook. Markets were rattled by news that former Japanese Prime Minister Abe has died after being shot at a campaign event. This week also, Boris Johnson’s government imploded and the PM was forced to resign. Weeks of leadership contest are now likely to follow, meaning that any important fiscal decisions will be delayed.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Tuesday – 12 July 2022

German ZEW (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The key topic for the Eurozone’s biggest and most important economy. Data is expected to show July’s ZEW econoomic sentiment is seen contracting at -37.5 from -28.
BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 17:00)

Wednesday – 13 July 2022

Rate Statement & Interest Rate Decision (NZD, GMT 02:00) – The RBNZ is seen boosting rates another 50 bps on the heels of the 50 bp hike in July. The RBNZ had increased rates 50bps in June and another 50bps in May. It will be the third consecutive rate hike while the markets anticipate also a fourth one.
Gross Domestic Product, Industrial & Manufacturing Production and Trade balance (GBP, GMT 06:00) – A plethora of data from the UK should confirmed a continued stuttering recession. UK GDP growth for May is expected to finalised at -0.3%. Regardless of the slight growth, the downside risks to the growth outlook remain. Industrial Production for May is expected at 0.2% from -0.6% last month.
Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) The US inflation surged 1.0% in May with the core rate climbing 0.6%, hotter than forecast, following April gains of 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively. The 12-month rates showed an acceleration to 8.6% y/y on the headline from 8.3%, and is the highest since late 1982, with the ex-food and energy component slipping to 6.0% y/y versus 6.2%, with the 6.5% y/y from March the 40-year high. Prices increases were broadbased and across every major category. In June is expected to ease a bit to 0.5% m/m and 5.9% y/y.
Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00) – The BOC remains on course for further rate hikes. It is expected to hike rates by 75bp to 2.25%. This is in line with market expectations and should have a contained impact on the Canadian Dollar. At the June policy meeting, the bank warned that “the risk of elevated inflation becoming entrenched has risen” and there was a clear need to “keep inflation expectations well anchored”.

Thursday – 14 July 2022

Employment and Unemployment Rate (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The Australian jobs market is expected to show a positive employment report, with 40k jobs in April and unemployment anticipated to tick lower to 3.9% from 4.0%.

Friday – 15 July 2022

Gross Domestic Product & Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – GDP for Q2 is expected show further detoriation of the Chinese economy as it is expected at 0.6% q/q from 1.3% q/q and at 4.4%y/y from 4.8% y/y, clearly showing the impact of supply chain disruption, the energy crisis etc. Headline Retail sales should be contracted at -7.1% y/y from -6.7% y/y.
Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – May US retail sales swings of -0.3% for the headline and 0.5% ex-autos followed downward revisions that left a much weaker trajectory than we had assumed for retail sales. US retail sales for June are expected to grow to 0.8% m/m and at 0.6% for ex-Auto number.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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