Events to Look Out for Next Week

Next week, with Jackson Hole out of the way, markets should have a clearer indication on 75 bps or 50 bps for September but also for the year end and the year ahead. All Central Bankers are expected to remain in hawkish mode and to continue to stress commitment to achieving goals via a front-loading approach. Concern over energy security and the jump in European gas and electricity prices will remain on tap. The agenda also sees NFP, and Inflation data from Canada, Europe and Switzerland.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Monday – 29 August 2022

Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Australian Retail Sales for July are expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2% m/m.

Tuesday – 30 August 2022

Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 12:00) – German CPI is expected to slowdown by 0.4% from 0.9% on a monthly basis.
CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – Consumer confidence is expected to fall to a 2-year low of 92.0 from 95.7 in July, versus a 1-year low of 105.7 in February. The expectations index is expected to rebound to 66.0 from a 9-year low of 65.3 in July. Confidence is being pushed down by soaring prices with supply chain disruptions, high mortgage rates, stock price weakness, the war in Ukraine, and the ongoing pull-back in the 2020-21 confidence lift from stimulus.
FOMC Member Williams Speech (USD, GMT 15:00) 

Wednesday – 31 August 2022

HICP (EUR, GMT 12:00) – Eurozone preliminary HICP inflation expected at 8.6% after it was confirmed at 8.9% y/y in the final reading for July, in line with expectations, and up from 8.6% y/y in the previous month. Core CPI is seen unchanged at 4.0% y/y. That is double the ECB’s 2% limit, and highlights that price increases are not confined to energy and/or unprocessed food, but are becoming increasingly widespread.
FOMC Member Mester Speech (USD, GMT 12:00)
Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The final annualiazed Q2 GDP for Canadian is expected to grow by 5.4% q/q from 3.1% q/q.

Thursday – 01 September 2022

Consumer Price Index (CHF, GMT 06:30) – Swiss CPI for August is expected to contract by -0.1% from 0.5% on a monthly basis.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to fall to a 2-year low of 52.0 from prior low of 52.8 in July from 53.0 in June, versus an 18-year high of 63.7 in March ’21, an 11-year low of 41.6 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 30.3 in June of 1980.

Friday – 02 September 2022

Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 230k August nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 528k in July, 398k in June, and 386k in May. Payroll growth should slow through 2022 alongside reduced GDP growth, and the climb in the initial and continuing claims in August suggests downside payroll risk for the month. We assume a 25k factory jobs rise in August, after a 30k July increase. We expect the jobless rate to hold steady for second month at 3.5%. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.1% after the 0.4% gain in July, while the workweek ticks down to 34.5 from 34.6 in July. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.2%, after a 0.5% July gain, while the y/y wage gain should hold steady from 5.2%. In the last expansion, we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic-boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020. The ensuing strength in wage gains has allowed continued robust y/y increases into 2022, though the return of low-paid workers to the workforce is likely restraining wage increases.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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