Events to Look Out For Next Week

Following a significant week which saw a major cut (2 million barrels per day) in Oil production from OPEC+,  a surprise cooling in interest rate hikes from the RBA (25 bp and not the much anticipated 50 bp) and a good NFP that saw 263K new jobs and Unemployment falling to 3.5%. Next week the calendar is quieter and topped by US CPI on Thursday. There is also, FOMC Minutes on Wednesday, PPI on Tuesday and Retail Sales on Friday. The UK will report Wages & Earnings on Tuesday followed by a speech from BOE Governor Bailey and GDP on Wednesday. Next week also has China back from the Golden Week Holiday, Q3 Earnings Season kicking-off and IMF Meetings.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Monday – 10 October 2022

China – Caixin Services PMI (Saturday October 8) a decline to 54.5 from 55.0 is expected.
IMF Group Meetings kick-off scheduled to run all week
Sentix Investor Confidence  (EUR, GMT 08:30) – The Sentix Investor Confidence number is a leading indicator of the EZ’s economic health. Last month it plunged to lows not seen since May 2020 (-41.8) when it reported a -31.8 fall from -25.2 in August. The October figure could also be very weak.
FOMC Member Brainard Speaks (USD, GMT 17:00) – Due to speak at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting, in Chicago. Audience questions are expected.

Tuesday – 11 October 2022

Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count & Unemployment Rate (GBP, GMT 07:00) The UK Index earnings and Claimant Count are expected to remain unchanged at 5.5% and 6.3k respectively. Unemployment rate could actually fall again to 3.5% from 3.6%.
Central Bank Speak today includes the Fed’s Mester (GMT 16:00), SNB Chair Jordan (GMT 16:45) and BOE Gov Bailey (GMT 18:35) due to speak at the  Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting, in Washington DC.

Wednesday – 12 October 2022

GDP (m/m) (GBP, GMT 06:00) – The September growth figure missed expectations coming in at 0.2% vs. 0.3%, but significantly ahead of the contraction of -0.6% in August. The October figure  is expected to remain flat at 0.2% and below the July high of 0.5%.
PPI (m/m) (USD, GMT 12:30) – The key PPI headline showed a -0.1% decline last month but was a rebound from the -0.5% decline in August and the spike in July to 1.1%. The price of finished goods and services sold by producers is a key input to rising cost in the US. The key Core PPI figure is expected to come in at 0.4%.
FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – A detailed record of the FOMC’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates. The Historical record of what was discussed and agreed.

Thursday – 13 October 2022

German  Final CPI m/m (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The second and final reading of German CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 1.9% as energy costs plateau, but before the recent OPEC+ oil production cuts.
Event of the Week – CPI  (USD, GMT 12:30) Headline inflation declined for a 3rd consecutive month last month from July’s record 9.1% high to “only” 8.3%, but remains over 4 times the FEDs 2% target. The Headline is expected to decline again in October, but the more important CORE last month was double expectations at 0.6% from 0.3%, the July peak for the CORE reading was 0.7%. The question persists if the US has seen “peak inflation” or is it to remain stubbornly high.

Friday – 14 October 2022

Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – Headline Retail Sales are expected to expand to 0.4% m/m from 0.3% m/m in September. However the CORE reading, which excludes the volatile Automobile reading (which can account for over 20% of all Retail Sales) is showing further weakness with expectations of a another -0.3% contraction similar to last month.
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (USD, GMT 14:30) – The Preliminary release of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment tends to have the most impact; and it is expected to recover to over 60.0 for the first time since April in this October reading, from last months 58.6.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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