Events to Look Out For Next Week

Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. Even if Central banks chaos is out of the way for now, inflation concerns and central bankers speeches are expected to dominate next week. Thursday is the most data-heavy day with US inflation releases and European Commission Economic Growth Forecasts. A focal point will also be the US midterm Congressional Elections.

Tuesday – 08 November 2022

US Congressional Elections
Consumer Price Index Expectations (NZD, GMT 02:00) – The Inflation Expectations released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand measures business managers´ expectations of annual CPI 2 years from now.
Speeches: SNB Chairman Jordan (CHF, GMT 08:15 ), Gov .Board Member Maechler (USD, GMT 08:30), RBA Gov. Lowe (AUD, GMT 09:30)

Wednesday – 09 November 2022

Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The Chinese inflation for October is seen growing at 0.4% m/m and headline is expected to ease at 2.5% y/y from 2.8% y/y.
RBA Assist Gov. Bullock Speech (AUD,GMT 09:05)
Crude Oil Inventories (GMT 15:30)

Thursday – 10 November 2022

European Commission releases Economic Growth Forecasts (EUR, GMT 10:00)
Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 13:30) – The US inflation in October is expected grow by 0.7% for the headline and 0.5% for the core, following respective September gains of 0.4% and 0.6%. CPI gasoline prices look poised to rise 5% in October. We expect dissipating upward pressure on core prices into year-end from global supply chain issues and the war in Ukraine, despite recent upside surprises. As-expected October CPI figures would result in a pullback in the y/y headline rise to 8.0% from 8.2% in September, versus a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. We expect the core y/y gain to slow to 6.5%, after a bounce to a 40-year high of 6.6%. For October PCE y/y chain price gains, we expect respective increases of 6.3% and 5.2% that sit below prior 40-year and 39-year highs of a respective 7.0% in June and 5.5% in February. We expect a sharp moderation in y/y gains for all the inflation gauges into early-2023 that will trim pressure on the Fed to rapidly remove policy accommodation.
Speeches: Gov. Board Member Maechler (CHF, GMT 12:30), BOC Gov. Macklem (CAD, GMT 16:50), FOMC Member Mester (USD, GMT 17:30), FOMC Member George (USD, GMT 18:30)

Friday – 11 November 2022

Gross Domestic Product, Industrial Production and Trade Balance (GBP, GMT 07:00) – A plethora of data from the UK should confirm a continued stuttering recession. The UK final GDP for Q3 is expected to confirm a contraction rate of -0.2% q/q, and headline from 4.4% y/y, falling to 2.8% y/y. Industrial Production for September is expected at -0.2% from 1.8%. The trade deficit is seen at -20.40B. The BOE’s predicts a long-lasting recession, with activity expected to decline by around 3/4% in the second half of this year, and to continue to fall throughout 2023 and the first half of 2024 “as high energy prices and materially tighter financial conditions weigh on spending.” In this environment the unemployment rate is seen rising to just under 6.5% by the end of the forecast period and aggregate slack to hit 3% of potential GDP.
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German inflation for October is expected unchanged at 0.9% m/m and 10.4% y/y.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment & New Home Sales (USD, GMT 15:00) – Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose to 59.9 in the final October print, inching up from the 59.8 preliminary and rising 1.3 points from the 58.6 in September. This is the highest since April’s 65.2 and has improved from the record nadir of 50.0 in June.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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