It’s a massive week ahead, with a heavy dose of global data releases including US and Canada jobs, Eurozone Inflation, OPEC Meeting, Chinese PMI, Canada GDP and central bankers’ speeches. So far, markets have taken the Fed minutes as a sign that US policy makers are supporting a tapering of rate hikes, which puts pressure on the US Dollar and supported stock, hence remarks from Chair Powell and President Lagarde could dominate attention next week, along with NFP.
Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.
Monday – 28 November 2022
Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian Retail Sales are expected to grow by 0.4% m/m in October from 0.6% last month.
ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR, GMT 14:00)
Tuesday – 29 November 2022
Gross Domestic Product (CHF, GMT 08:00) – GDP for Q3 is expected lower at 0.2% q/q and headline at 1.6% y/y from 2.8% y/y.
Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – GDP for Q3 is expected lower at 0.4% q/q from 0.8% q/q but headline should rise to 3.5% y/y from 3.3% y/y.
CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 15:00) – Consumer confidence is expected to ease to 100.0 from 102.5 in October, versus a 17-month low of 95.7 in July. We expect the present situation index to fall to a 19-month low of 133.3 from 138.9 in October. The expectations index is expected to fall to 77.8 from 78.1 in October, versus a 9-year low of 65.3 in July. We expect the 1-year inflation measure to hold steady from 7.0% in October, versus an all-time high of 7.9% in June. We’ve seen a modest confidence updraft since mid-year on net, though all of the measures have deteriorated sharply from mid-2021 peaks. Net gains since Q2 likely reflect the summer pullback in gasoline prices before a partial reversal of this relief into Q4. The surveys face headwinds from the mortgage rate surge and mounting recession fears.
Wednesday – 30 November 2022
Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The November NBS Manufacturing PMI in China is expected at 50.0 from 49.2.
ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – The key private payrolls number is expected to grow by just 101k (a nearly 138k decline from last month’s reading).
Revised Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30)– The revised Q3 GDP for the US is forecasted to boost to 3.2% from 2.6%, with hikes of $16 bln for consumption, $11 bln for exports, $4 bln for imports, $14 bln for nonresidential construction and $5 bln for public construction, but downward bumps of -$10 bln for inventories and -$1 bln for residential construction. The Q3 data will still depict a quarter with solid final sales growth, which we now estimate at 4.2% (was 3.3%), thanks to an upwardly-revised 1.9% (was 1.4%) consumption gain, and a huge $163.6 (was $156.6) net export contribution as exports surge and imports fall. The reduced import hit was partly offset by an estimated -$58.2 (was -$48.2) bln inventory subtraction, as demand to replenish inventories with imported goods dissipates.
Fed Chair Powell Speech (USD, GMT 18:30)
Thursday – 01 December 2022
OPEC Meeting (All Day)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (USD, GMT 13:30) – Personal income should post a 0.4% gain in October, after a 0.4% September gain. We expect a 0.5% rise in compensation after a 0.3% gain, given a 0.2% October increase for hours-worked and a 0.4% rise for hourly earnings. We also expect a 0.8% rise for consumption after a 0.7% August increase.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM index is expected to fall to a 2-year low of 50.0 from a prior low of 50.2 in October, versus an 18-year high of 63.7 in March 2021, an 11-year low of 41.6 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 30.3 in June of 1980.
Friday – 02 December 2022
RBA Governor Lowe Speech (AUD, GMT 02:00)
Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 200k November nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 261k in October, 315k in September, and 292k in August. Payroll growth should slow into the winter as mortgage rates rise and recession fears mount. A climb in initial and continuing claims since September implies some downside payroll risk. The jobless rate is seen to tick up to 3.8% from 3.7% in October and a 3.5% cycle-low in September. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.1% after a 0.2% October rise, while the workweek holds at 34.5 for a sixth month. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.3% after a 0.4% gain in October, while the y/y wage gain should be steady at 4.7%. In the last expansion, we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic-boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020. The ensuing strength in wage gains has allowed continued robust y/y increases in 2022, though the return of low-paid workers to the workforce is likely restraining wage increases.
Employment data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada’s employment rose by only 6K in November following the 108.3K rise in October. The unemployment rate should be unchanged at 5.2% m/m.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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