Events to Look Out For Next Week

Trading activity could gear up quickly to begin the abbreviated week with the key question still being how much further policymakers will have to boost rates. The inflation figures out of US are in the spotlight since an as-expected reading for December CPI figures would result in a pullback in the y/y headline rise to 6.5% from 7.1%, implying a cooling of inflation. For the UK, monthly GDP figure is in focus.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Monday  – 09 January 2023

Consumer Price Inflation (JPY, GMT 23:30) –  Tokyo inflation for December is expected to rise further at  4.5% m/m as both Energy and Food CPI could rise further.  Overall household Spending is seen at 3.1% y/y from 1.2% y/y in November.

Tuesday – 10 January 2023

BOC Governor Macklem, BOJ Governor Kuroda and Fed Chair Powell Speeches.

Wednesday – 11 January 2023

Consumer Price Inflation & Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Inflation for Q4 is expected to cool a bit to 7% from 7.3% q/q while Retail Sales for November are anticipated to rise to 0.7% from contraction at -0.2%.

Thursday – 12 January 2023

Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The Chinese inflation expected to grow by 1.8% for the headline and contract at -0.1% for December.
Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – The US inflation figures are forecasted unchanged for the headline and 0.3% for the core in December, following respective November gains of 0.1% and 0.2%. CPI gasoline prices look poised to fall -9% in December. We expect dissipating upward pressure on core prices into 2023 as disruptions from global supply chain bottlenecks and the war in Ukraine subside. As-expected December CPI figures would result in a pullback in the y/y headline rise to 6.5% from 7.1% in November, versus a 40-year high of 9.1% in June.

Friday – 13 January 2023

Industrial Production and Trade Balance (GBP, GMT 07:00) – For Q3 GDP growth was unexpectedly revised down to -0.3% q/q from -0.2% q/q reported initially. The annual rate was revised to 1.9% y/y from 2.4% y/y.  The full breakdown flagged that the erosion of real disposable income has hit consumption. Gross fixed capital investment rose 1.1% q/q, but that that was much less than initially reported. Exports jumped and imports declined, which helped to prop up the overall number, but also flagged that the domestic economy is struggling. Industrial and ManufactuRing Production for November are expected to contract further at -0.3% and -0.2% respectively.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment & New Home Sales (USD, GMT 15:00) – The preliminary Michigan sentiment report is expected to reveal a headline rise to 60.0 in January from 59.7, versus an all-time low of 50.0 in June, an 88.3 cycle-high in April of 2021, and an early-pandemic bottom of 71.8 in April of 2020. Current conditions should rebound to 60.0 from 59.4, versus an all-time low of 53.8 in June and a 97.2 cycle-high in April of 2021. Expectations should rise to 60.0 from 59.9 in December and a 5-month low of 55.6 in November, versus a 42-year low of 47.3 in July and an 83.5 cycle-high in June of 2021.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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