Events to Look Out For Next Week

There is much riding on next week’s BoJ meeting, with the Yen the biggest gainer of the week amid speculation of an early policy reset in Japan as the BoJ struggles to keep a lid on yields. The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, kicks off next week as well. The economic agenda contains Inflation figures from UK, Canada, UK & Australian labour data and US PPI.

Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication.

Monday – 16 January 2023

World Economic Forum –  Full Week – The Davos WEF kicks off attended by central bankers, prime ministers, finance ministers, trade ministers, and business leaders from over 90 countries.

Tuesday – 17 January 2023

Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00) – GDP for Q4 is expected to have contracted to -0.8% q/q and headline at 1.8% y/y from 3.9% y/y.
Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count & Unemployment Rate (GBP, GMT 07:00) – Employment is worsening and the workforce is dropping, led by a “solid and accelerated fall in manufacturing headcounts”. Wage expectations rose 0.5% points to 6.3%. For this year catch-up effects will still see a broad shift higher in negotiated wages against the background of widespread strike action that is hitting the country at the moment. Looking further ahead, there are more signs that tightness in the labour market is beginning to ease.

Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada CPI is expected to be 6.40% by the end of the quarter, according to Trading Economics’ global macro models and analyst expectations. In the long-term, the Canada Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 2.50% in 2023 and 2.00% in 2024.

Wednesday – 18 January 2023

Interest Rate Decision, Statement and Conference (JPY, GMT 03:00)The BoJ stepped in with additional bond purchases, and since the last meeting the speculation of an early policy shift is mounting. Traders are starting to position for an early policy shift, after the Yomiuri newspaper said the central bank will consider policy adjustments, to address turbulence prompted by last month’s tweak. The rise in the yield prompted an announcement of another round of unscheduled debt purchases.
Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 07:00) – The latest BoE survey on inflation expectations, showed the projected rate rising to 7.4% in December from 7.2% in the previous month. Despite this week’s expansion of UK activity and better than expected GDP, still the risk of a more prolonged recession in the UK is pretty high, as the domestic economy is struggling and the impact of Brexit is adding to problems for the export sector.
Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – December PPI figures are anticipated unchanged for the headline and 0.2% for the core, following respective gains of 0.3% and 0.4 in November. As expected readings would result in the y/y headline PPI metric easing to 6.8% from 7.4%, versus an all-time high of 11.7% in March. Overall, the massive PPI climb since the start of 2021 exceeded the uptrend in headline and core CPI data, and both sets of gains have chased outsized increases in the trade price measures. Now as prices unwind, the trade price measures are falling sharply, with ensuing weakness in PPI and CPI that should extend into 2023. We expect sharply moderating y/y gains for all the major metrics in early-2023.

Thursday – 19 January 2023

Labour Market Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Employment change for December is expected to grow by 22.5K from 64K, with the unemployment rate at 3.4% m/m.
ECB President Lagarde Speech (EUR, GMT 10:30)
Building Permits & Housing Starts (USD, GMT 13:30) – Housing starts are expected to fall -1.9% to a 1.400 mln pace in December from 1.427 mln in November, versus a 2-year low of 1.377 mln in July. Permits are expected to rebound to 1.370 mln after a dip to a 2-year low of 1.351 mln from 1.512 mln in November. Pending home sales fell -4.0% in November to another new 3-year low after a -4.6% drop in October to a prior low.
Philly Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – The Philly Fed index is expected to improve to -9.0 from -13.8 in December, versus a 2-year low of -19.4 in November and a 48-year high of 50.2 in April of 2021. The various producer sentiment measures have moderated throughout 2022 from remarkably lofty peaks for most measures in November of 2021, with many of the various component categories now in contraction territory. Producers are facing big headwinds from elevated interest rates and mounting recession fears, but have benefited from the need to rebuild inventories into 2023 following a prolonged period of supply chain disruptions.

Friday – 20 January 2023

Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK Retail Sales for December are expected to show a slight improvement to 0.4% m/m from – 0.4% m/m, with headline still in contraction at -4.2% y/y from -5.9% y/y .

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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