Latest reports of the International Labor Organization & OPEC

USOIL, Daily

The International Labor Organization has warned that the current slowdown in the global economy will force more workers to accept low-paid and precarious jobs that lack social protection, exacerbating inequality that has increased due to the COVID-19 crisis.

UK ILO unemployment held steady at 3.7% in the three month to December

Employment rose more than anticipated in the three month to December and earnings growth slowed for the overall figure, but accelerated further in the ex-bonus numbers. The latter highlights that the tight labour market and wide spread strike action is forcing companies to up wage offers and regular pay in order to keep hold of skilled staff. More up to date monthly numbers showed that the number of jobless claims declined in January, the claimant count rate was lower than anticipated and the number of payrolled employees jumped 102K. More signs that the labour market is tight, and even if the overall earnings growth rate decelerated, the fact that regular pay is rising at an elevated and accelerate rate backs concern at the BoE that wage growth will drive price increases this year. For the hawkish camp at the central bank that will likely be enough to call for more rate hikes, with the numbers backing at least another 25 bp at the next meeting.

The release of the OPEC report for January 2023 on the crude oil market

Today, 14/2/2023, OPEC will issue its monthly report on the crude oil market for last January, and expectations that the crude oil market will remain in balance in the first quarter of 2023, with an increase in global oil demand by 220.51 million barrels per day for the entire year.

“OPEC” expectations that the Chinese demand for oil will recover in 2023 as a result of Beijing’s easing of restrictions related to the Corona virus, and it expressed optimism about the expectations of the global economy in 2023.

Analysts will also reveal their expectations for the future of the oil markets during the current year (2023), and how upcoming events and developments will affect Russian oil, and then prices.

USOIL, Daily

USOil  is trading around the $80.00 level and still holds on to its longer term trend line. It is expected that as long as price holds the $78.50 levels, it will hold the upward channel, immediate resistance is the January highs north of $81.50 and intra-day highs at $82.50. A break of the 20-day moving average at $78.00, could see the psychological $75.00 level tested and below that the 2023 low of $72.25. 

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Shereem Rami

Market Analysis

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