Market Update – February 15 – CPI Data Done – Retail Sales Next

US CPI DATA provided a real mixed bag.  Monthly data higher & annual data lower to 6.4% from 6.5% but missed expectations of 6.2%. A volatile session – USD finishing higher and Stocks (-0.46% to +0.57%) were mixed.  The 2yr yield curve rose further and the inversion between that and the 10yr curve widened to -83bp. The Fed Funds Futures is now pushing the terminal rate over the 5.25% level.  Overnight RBA’s LOWE issued a gloomy outlook & “unsure how high rates can go” – AUD tanked, Kishida said Ueda was the “best” candidate and unsure on policy change. Asian markets biased lower. GBPCPI cools (10.1% vs. 10.3% & 10.5%) RPI holds at 13.4%. 

FXUSD Index holds 103.00 at 103.43, up from 102.35 lows yesterdayEUR back down to test 1.0700 today after a brief sojourn to 1.0800, following US CPI. Sterling spiked to 1.2270 highs but is below 1.2100 now at 1.2085 post UK CPI & RPI. 
Stocks – The US markets mixed again (-0.46% to +0.57%) led by #TSLA +7.51 & #NVDA +5.54% (Buffet has increased stake in #APPL) US500 flat -0.03% (-1.16) 4136, holding the key 4100. US500 FUTS lower at  4122 now. 

Commodities – USOil – Futures topped at $80.60 yesterday before sinking under $78.00 now as US private Inventories rose (EIA data today). Gold – tanked from $1870 highs yesterday to $1836 lows today on a stronger USD.
Cryptocurrencies  – BTC – Tested $21.5k lows again yesterday before retaking $22k now. 

Today – EZ Industrial Production, US Retail Sales, Empire State Manu., Ind. Prod. & Japanese Trade Balance, Speech from ECB’s Lagarde.  Earnings: Heineken, (beat) Kering, (miss) Barclays (miss -7.01%), Glencore, (miss -2.42% Cisco, Biogen, Analog Devices, Marathon Oil & Shopify.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-1.01%). Tanked over 1% following LOWE’s testimony. Sank from a test of 0.7030 yesterday to under 0.6900 now. MA’s aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line negative & declining, RSI 26.30 & OS, H1 ATR 0.00150, Daily ATR 0.00903.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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