Market Update – February 17 – Risks raised – Russia reports being fired on

US Stock markets flat into close (US500 +3 pts) after a weak day, no surprises in FED minutes (Jan 25/26) no talk of 50bps rate rises but a lot has happened in 3 weeks.  USD & JPY bid on more jitters regarding Ukraine. Gold rallied back to $1875, Oil – very volatile after inventories, contract expiry & news from Iran. Yields widened again but remain elevated. Asian markets also slipped Nikkei (-0.83%) but have cooled into close. US & UK  – “Russian troop withdrawal claims “false”. Ukraine denies any missiles from Donbass were fired.

USD (USDIndex 95.85) cools from spike to 96.00 earlier.
US Yields 10-yr closed 2.045 trades at down now 1.998%, 2-yrs remain elevated.   
Equities – USA500 +3.94 pts (+1.58%) 4475 -(NVDA beat,) FB -2.02%  US500 FUTS cooler now at 4455.
USOil – Topped at $93.00, after inventories, collapsed to $88.00 after contract expiry and positive nuclear deal headlines from both the US and Iran. Trades at $90.80 now. 
Gold – Rallied $1850 support to $1875 now.    
Bitcoin remains in the $45,000 to $42,000 range. 
FX marketsEURUSD down to 1.1364 USDJPY down  to 115.25 & Cable to 1.3585, from a test of 1.3600 after hot inflation yesterday.  

Overnight –  JPY machinery orders much better than expected, Trade balance slipped significantly. AUD Job creation better than expected and Unemployment steady at

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 32 ticks, U.S. futures are also moving higher.  Investors are keeping a weary eye on central banks, which are trapped between fears of out of control inflation and concern that hasty and aggressive central bank action could hit the recovery. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.75 and -0.4% respectively.

Today – US Initial Claims, CBRT Policy Announcement, ECB’s Lane, Schnabel, de Cos, Fed’s Bullard & Mester Earnings Standard Chartered (beat); Airbus (beat), Orange, Commerzbank, Walmart

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.43%) Rallied from lows of  0.8400 yesterday to  0.8510 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram significantly above 0 line, RSI 68.25 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0015 Daily ATR 0.0060.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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