Market Update – January 26 – BOC Pause, TESLA Beat, USD at lows

HK markets reopened today and rallied +2.15%, other Asian markets were softer following a weak handover form Wall Street (opened -1.6% but recovered to close flat) Gold remains at 9-mth highs and USD at 8-mth lows. The Dovish 25bp hike from the BOC hit the CAD (USDCAD hit 1.3430 from 1.3340); – the key phrase the Bank – “expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of cumulative interest rate increases.” Speculation building that the BOC could even be raising rates before year end. #TSLA (+0.38%) Earnings beat (+5.5% after hours) record deliveries (with 1.8-2.0 possible 2023), magins held up & the 20% price cuts kicked-in. MUSk talked of deep recession and more cost cutting for year ahead.  Gold $1940, USOIL over $80.00, BTC breaches $23k.

The USD Index has tested the 8-mth low at 101.25, today, trades at 101.40 now ahead of another busy economic data day . 
EUR – holds over 1.0900 now, posting 9-mth highs at 1.0929 today, following 1.0925 on Monday. 
JPY – Sank below support at 130.00 yesterday, and tested back to 129.00 today, before Japanese minister warns of not letting speculators dominate JPY movements.  
GBP – Sterling has rallied to test over 1.2400 today and test 1.2410 resistance. 
Stocks – The US markets closed flat (-0.18% to +0.03%) yesterday amid concerns over Earnings. US500 -0.02%, (-0.73) 4016 band holds the key 4000 level US500 FUTS trade firmer at 4042. IBM. AT&T both beat, whilst Boeing numbers were mixed. In Europe today Diageo and SAP have both posted strong beats. Lifting Eurpean stocks at open.

USOil – topped at $81.00 yesterday before dipping to $79.50 after inventories showed at 0.5 million barrel build compared to expectations of 1.2m after two weeks of huge builds. Tardes at $80.40 now. 
Gold – Tested into $1949 earlier today from $1922 support yesterday, and trades at $1940 now.
BTC – Continues to hold the $22k handle this week, spiking to $23.7K earlier today and holds $23k currently. 

Today – US Durable Goods, GDP Advance/PCE Prices Advance (Q4), Weekly Claims, New Home Sales, Japanese CPI, SARB Policy Announcement, Earnings from Diageo (beat), STMicroelectronics, Nokia, SAP (beat) LVMH, Comcast, Intel,& Visa.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.24%). Rallied from 0.8620 post BOC lows yesterday to test 0.8700 & trades at 0.8680now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 53.10 & stalling, H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0073.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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