Market Update – July 4 – USD & Stocks hold gains, Yields slip

USD holds around Fridays close (USDIndex 104.85), Stocks closed higher on Friday (S&P500 +1.06%) but FUTS have slipped and Yields are down again (-4.51%).   Asian shares are mixed after Chinese developer Shimao defaults and Covid concerns rise again.  (Hang Seng -0.30%, Nikkei +0.84%) Oil ticks higher, Gold tests $1815 & BTC tests $19k. European FUTS also mixed. Russia claims victory in “liberated” Luhansk region and accuses Ukraine of shelling Belgorod. AUD outperforms in Asian session.

Week Ahead – Topped by NFP on Friday, FOMC Minutes on Wednesday and RBA rate decision tomorrow

USDIndex tested 105.36 Friday before slipping back to 104.85 now. 
EquitiesUSA500 closed +39 (3825), US500FUTS lower at 3810 now.
Yields 10-year yield lower, closed down at 2.889% , trades at 2.880% now.   
Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil has rallied to $108.70 now from $104.55 Friday. Gold spiked to $1815 earlier from a $1785 low on Friday. 
Bitcoin continues to trade under $20K, testing $19K today.
FX MarketsEURUSD tested under 1.0400 Friday following record CPI (8.6%) now back to 1.0425,  USDJPY cooled again to 134.75 on Friday back to 135. 40 now. Cable trades at 1.2110 now, from lows at 1.1975 Friday after weak PMIs. 

OvernightAustralian Building Approvals jumped surprisingly to 9.9% vs -2.0%.  German Trade Balance, missed significantly, turning negative at -1.0b vs. 4.2b, & Swiss CPI, hotter at 0.7%.

Today –  EZ PPI, Speeches from ECB’s Elderson, Nagel & de Guindos, US Independence Day holiday.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.60%). AUD out performed today. Rallied from 91.40 test on Friday to 92.64 now and a key resistance. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram negative but rising, RSI 58.3 & rising, H1 ATR 0.251, Daily ATR 1.432.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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