Market Update – June 20 – Stocks at lows, USD Holds, Oil Steadies

USD holds at highs (USDIndex 104.13), Stocks mixed on Friday & third week lower (S&P500 -5.79% & worst week since March 2020, down -23% YTD) For the Dow, this was the 11th weekly decline out of the last 12 weeks, the worst trend ever. Futures steady. Yields rallied (US 10yr 3.24%), Asian markets have mostly slipped, (Nikkei -1.00%). Oil tanked close to -6% on Friday on fears of recession and Gold remains pressured by rising yields & strong USD. BTC broke below $20k over the weekend. Chinese imports of Russian oil +55%. Fed’s Waller & Kashkari support hiking another 75 bps in July, Mester said 2% inflation will take at least 2-yrs and Macron has lost his parliamentary majority, under pressure from both left & right.

Week Ahead – Will be dominated by Central Bank Speak topped by FED Chair Powell’s  2-day testimony to Congress. CPI & PMI data also due this week.

USDIndex rallied to 104.80 on Friday and holds at 104.15 today. 
EquitiesUSA500 +8 (+0.02%) at 3674, US500FUTS at 3691 now.
Yields 10-year yield higher (3.24% at close), trades at  3.23% now.   
Oil & Gold had weaker sessions – USOil crashed to $105.75 Friday from over $123 earlier in the week, trades at $108.00.  Gold could not breach $1850 and trades at  $1840 now.   
Bitcoin crashed to $18.8k continues to pivot around $20K.
FX marketsEURUSD down at  1.0525,  USDJPY holds at 135.00 zone (24-yr high) and Cable trades down at 1.2240. 

Overnight PPI in Germany hotter (1.6% vs 1.5%) down from 2.8% last month but up to 33.6% y/y in May.

Today – Speeches from Fed’s Bullard, ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, Panetta, Kazaks & BoE’s Mann, Juneteenth holiday in the US.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.75%). Moves higher from 0.6900 test on Friday to  0.6980, as AUD gets a bid in the Asian session. Next key resistance 0.7000. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram negative but turning higher, RSI 57 & rising,   H1 ATR 0.0017, Daily ATR 0.0072.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.