Market Update – June 30 – End of the Month flows?

USD recovers (USDIndex 104.96), Stocks drop but in Asia markets mostly added to yesterday’s losses, with China bourses outperforming after data signaled signs of improvement and the PBOC reiterated its pledge to provide support for the economy, with a focus on stabilising jobs and inflation. Yields are currently down -2.7 bp and -1.1 bp respectively and bonds in Australia and New Zealand also moved higher. Bonds still remain supported byreaffirmation from core central bankers of their commitment to lowering inflation back to the 2% target. China’s official Composite PMI & German retail sales  bounced back.  UK Q1 GDP was confirmed at 0.8% q/q in the final reading, unchanged from the previous release and leaving the annual rate at 8.7% y/y. Oil at 109.12, Gold steady.

USDIndex up to 104.96, from where the strength is starting to peter out. The buck has rallied against the majors and looks to be capturing a haven bid as well.
Equities –  USA100 and USA500 are about -0.25% lower, while the GER40 has tumbled -1.80% and the UK100 is -0.15% lower.  Nikkei and ASX closed with losses of -1.6% and -2% respectively.

Yields 10-year slid 8 bps to 3.09%. Bond market closing early on Friday.
Oil is falling -2.17% to $109.33. 
Gold steady at $1,817.
Bitcoin below 20K!
FX MarketsEURUSD drifted to 1.0432, USDJPY peaked at 137 areaCable recovers slightly at 1.2160 from 1.2105.

Lagarde repeats ECB is determined to bring inflation down. She remains tight lipped on new crisis tool. Lagarde repeated that there is the need for the ECB to safeguard an even transmission of monetary policy and that the bank will in the first step use the re-investment of previous purchases to address any unwarranted disruptions. 

Powell: there are risks we go too far in tightening policy, but that is not the biggest risk. He said the bigger risk is that there is an insufficient response and inflation expectations become unanchored. And once those expectations become unmoored, “the cost of dealing with higher inflation goes up so much… you just cannot allow it to happen.”

BoE’s Bailey would not specify the Bank’s next move in answering a direct question on whether the hike will be by 50 bps. He said, though, that there will be circumstances where the BoE will have to do more, but he wants to see what happens in coming months. 

Today – OPEC+ enters a second and final day of meetings today. Focus is also on the US PCE, Canadian GDP and Inflation from Japan

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Coffee (-4.82%). Reverted 3-day losses. MAs aaligning higher, MACD lines turn positive but signal line remains well below 0 & RSI is at 65. H1 ATR 2.24, Daily ATR 7.83.

Click here to access our Economic Calendar

Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.