Market Update – May 11 – All About the Inflation Outlook

USD holds at highs and on standby for US CPI later, Stocks stalled their recent declines,  Yields cool a tad as talk of Treasury rout also cools with 10-yr back under 3.00%. Oil paused its 9% slump on EU Oil ban and OPEC talk of capacity issues. Gold under $1850.  Asian shares off 2-year lows (Nikkei +0.18%). Chinese Inflation hotter than expected, Biden supports FED actions, more Fed members talk rate hikes, NZ housing market shows signs of cooling. US House of Representatives approves $400bn support package for Ukraine as US intelligence chief talks of Putin preparing for “long war”.

USDIndex remains under 104.00 but holds its bid trading at 103.75 now.
EquitiesUSA500 +9.81 (0.25%) at 4001.05, US500FUTS at 4015 now. Peloton -8.7% @ $12.70 (ATH was $171), COIN -12.6%, TSLA +1.64%, TWTR -1.64% (Musk would allow TRUMP back). APPLE (+1.61%) retired the iPod after 21 years.
Yields cooled -10-yr closed at 2.993%, below key 3.00% level.  Trades down over 1.5% today at 2.98%.   
Oil & Gold both had weak & volatile sessions –  USOil tested down to $98.00 before reversing to $102.20  Gold slumped from  $1865 to $1830 earlier and struggles at $1845 now. No safe-haven bid.
Bitcoin languishes at $31K now, over 50% down from ATH and -35% YTD
FX marketsEURUSD up from 1.0500 to 1.0545, USDJPY holds over 130.00, at  130.25 and Cable continues to struggle at 1.2335.  AUD outperformed in Asia.  

OvernightCHINA CPI  & PPI hotter than expected, (2.1% vs 1.5% & 8.0% vs 7.8%) respectively.  JPY leading Indicators  better than expected & German M/M CPI in-line at 0.8%.  ECB’s Müller: Appropriate to raise rates into positive territory by year-end. Fed’s Waller & Mester more hawkish. (Mester talked of going beyond neutral)

Today – US CPI, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic, ECB’s Lagarde, Schnabel, Elderson, de Cos, Centeno, Vasle & Muller. Earnings from Ubisoft, Siemens Energy, Poste Italiane, E.ON, Continental, ITV, Compass & Beyond Meat.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.42%) Rallied from lows at 0.6910 yesterday to 0.6970 now, next resistance 0.6980 and 0.7000 today. MAs aligning higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher & testing 0 line, RSI 56 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0016, Daily ATR 0.011.


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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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