Market Update – November 9 – USD Weaker, Stocks Firmer, Crypto Crash, Republicans win the House

The USD Index slipped further to test 109.20 yesterday, and trades at 109.60, at 110.25 today. Stocks moved higher again (DOW +1.00%) and Yields held at recent highs. The Crypto Complex has tanked with BTCUSD down from $20.5k to under $16.8k, lows before recovering, as leading crypto exchange FTX was forced to sell to out rival Binance. Asian shares have slipped too (Nikkei -0.56%, Hang Seng -1.88%). Chinese Inflation was mixed with CPI cooling to 2.5% from 2.4% but PPI -1.3% vs -1.5%. 

Midterms results are suggesting a win for the Republicans in the HOuse (but not the Red Wave landslide some had predicted) the SEnate remains very close with a key win in Pennsylvania for the Democrats. A gridlocked Washington, even if the Democrats hold-on to control in the Senate, which many assume will be beneficial for stock-markets  and see a weaker USD appears to be the most likely outcome.

EUR – continued to rally yesterday and tested the next resistance at 1.0100, and trates at 1.0060, holding the hugely psychological parity 1.0000 level. 
JPY – dipped again breaching 146.00 to 145.25 lows and trades at 145.85. 
GBP – Sterling dipped to 1.1440, but then rallied to test 1.1600 and holds at 1.1540 now. 
Stocks – Wall Street rallied over 1.75% from open, gave up all their gains and then clawed back 0.5-1.0%. Big movers included COIN  +-10.78% GLYT +-22.9% and TSLA -2.93% (Musk sold $3.95bn shares). US500 closed +21 (+0.56%) at 3828,  FUTS trades at 3827 now. 

USOil – rejected $93.00, collapsed through $90.00 and trades at $88.50 now. 
Gold – spiked from $1665 lows, over $1680 and $1700 resistance to trade at $1710.    
BTCcrashed to $16.8k from $20.5k, before recovering to $18.3k now. FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried was forced to sell his exchange to rival  Binance as a run on FTT coin, which is FTX’s token and Bankman-Fried’s trading company Alameda Research. The company was valued at $32b at the beginning of 2022. 

Today – US Midterm Election Results, Speeches from Fed’s Williams & Barkin, ECB’s Elderson, BoE’s Haskel.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.42%) rallied yesterday from an initial dip, to 0.5900 to test 0.6000 but now is down again to 0.5935.  MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but falling, RSI 49.00 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00156, Daily ATR 0.01070. 


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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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