Market Update – September 12 – USD slips again, EUR lifts, Stocks firm

USDIndex – Slips again as EUR and YEN see demand. Final FedSpeak remained Hawkish as news blackout starts. 88-90% chance of 75 bp hike up from 57% last week.
EURECB looking at 2% interest rates (currently 0.75%) to bring inflation to 2% target (currently 9.1%). 2024 exceptions 2.4% and 2% by 2025. Market expects 2-3 more rate hikes into December. Trades at 1.0100 now.
JPY Govt spokesman (Kihara) – need to take steps to curb “excessive” Yen declines, stopped short of calling for BOJ intervention. However, USDJPY rallied from test of 142.00 Friday to 143.25 now.
GBP Trades at 1.1643 despite miss for GDP earlier. London remains muted (politics suspended) but open ahead of Queen’s funeral next Monday (bank holiday).
Stocks US stocks moved higher again as Dollar & Yields cooled (S&P500 4067) FUTS trade at 4076. Asian stock markets have rallied too, and European FUTS are higher pre-open.

USOil topped at $87.50 on Friday on more chatter of supply issues. Trades at 86.30 now. 20-day moving average sits at $90.00.
Gold – also rallied to $1728 and holds the key $1700 at $1720 now.
BTC – rallied higher again, touching $22.2k earlier from $18.5k lows last week. Trades at 21.7k now.

Overnight & Today – UK Monthly GDP missed (0.25 vs 0.5%), ECB Survey of Analysts, Speeches from ECB’s Schnabel & de Guindos.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURJPY (+1.01%). Continues to rally from a test of 142.75 on Friday, trades at 144.80 now. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 72.56 & OB, H1 ATR 0.00142, Daily ATR 0.00850.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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