Market Update – September 30 – Quarter End

USDIndex – has dropped back to 112.00, as bonds and stocks remained very jittery into quarter end, month end and week end. The US Q2 chain price indexes accelerated to 9.0% for the headline, and 4.7% for the core. Credibility issues are keeping also buyers sidelined as the central banks are seen having waited too long to address rising price pressures, with worries now that they are overdoing rate hikes and will push the world into recession.
Yields: The German 10-year rate is down -3.2 bp in early trade, the US rate -4.1 bp.
UK PM Liz Truss will stick to her plan to reignite economic growth, breaking her silence after nearly a week of financial market chaos.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz – set out $196 billion “defensive shield”, including a gas price brake and a cut in sales tax for the fuel, to protect companies and households from the impact of soaring energy prices. That came after the 10.9% German Inflation figure for September.

Stocks  were headed for their worst month! Nikkei still closed with a loss of -1.8%, the ASX was down -1.2% by end of trade while CSI 300 and Hang Seng are down -0.3% and up 0.1% respectively. However, markets seem to be finding a footing and European and US futures are mostly managing slight gains.
Japan’s factories ramped up output in August and China’s factory activity returned to growth this month, data showed.
GBP – has lifted above 1.10
EUR – is at 0.98.
JPY – traded at 144.57.
USOil – steady at $81.
Gold – rebounded to $1670.
BTC – steady at 19410
VIX index has been on the rise and hit 33.46 earlier, just shy of the 34.75 May high, though has yet to really test the 40 area last seen in late 2020.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USA100 back to 11333. Intraday fast MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram & signal line are turning higher but still in negative area, RSI at 54.76, H1 ATR 58.36, Daily ATR 354.98.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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