Market Update – September 8 – Stocks Rise, USD Slips, Oil Tanks

USDIndex – spiked to 110.75, before slipping below 110.00 yesterday, but still holds the bid close to 20-year highs and trades at 109.50 now. Yields also slipped, but the curve remains inverted. Fed Fund Futures now at 79%/21% for 75bp vs. 50 bp September 21. Fedspeak Collins  – inflation at 2% is the Fed’s “Job One,” Vice Chair Brainard said tight monetary policy will continue “for as long as it takes to get inflation down.”
EURECB action today and 75bp also in the frame.  EUR rallied back to Parity yesterday and trades at  1.0093 now. EU plans a price cap on Russian gas prices – Putin warns of “winter freeze”.  
JPY rallies again (yet more new 24-year highs) tested to 145.00 & holds at 143.50. Japan MOF, FSA, and BOJ to hold meeting at 0745 GMT today.
GBP new 37-year lows tested 1.1400 yesterday, back to 1.1515 now. New PM Truss set to announce £100bln emergency energy plan, via massive increase in government borrowing. 
Stocks US stocks rallied as Dollar & Yields cooled (S&P500 3979). Nasdaq best performer (+2.14%). TWTR +6.6%, TSLA +3.38%, Globalstar +21% (new satellite partner for APPLE’s new iPhone 14, Watch 8 Ultra and new AirPods (no news on new services). Share price unmoved after hours.   

USOil tanked (-5%+) on Russia/EU situation; and global outlook. Trades at $82.65 now from overnight lows at $81.40 now. Summer highs were north of $123.50.
Gold – also rallied from lows under $1700 at  $1691, to $1718.60 now.
BTC – plunged to 18.5k lows yesterday and remains under 20k at 19.3k now. 

Overnight & Today US Weekly Claims, ECB Announcement, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Powell, Evans, Kashkari & BoC’s Rogers.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPCHF (-0.31%). Continues to decline, yesterday breaking under 1.1300 to 1.1220 lows which are being re-tested now. MAs aligning lower,  MACD histogram negative & signal line neutral, RSI 39.90,  H1 ATR 0.00137, Daily ATR 0.00814.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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